Load

The Long Con in Synthetic Fuels. Just another load.

The colossus of Baghdad. Monument to idiocy.

The real Saudi vulnerability. Warfare targeting infrastructure is more efficient. It's fortunately the real fanatics are more interesting in big, bloody attacks. What else can you expect from the someone doing the Jihad Swing?

Grand

Chinese warning over toy safety. Ain't globalization grand? Cheap crap (and electronics) keeps the rate of "official" inflation down.

Guerrilla economics. It's hard to tell which race to the bottom will win.

Gila Monster

Cheney Attempting to Constrain Bush's Choices on Iran Conflict: Staff Engaged in Insubordination Against President Bush. A gila monster is as a gila monster does.

What the Finkelstein Tenure Fight Tells Us About the State of Academia. Its boring.

Hamas' latest conquest: The Walt Disney Co. Propaganda on propaganda.

Happy Memorial Day Weekend.

Lack

The Core Competence of America’s Military Leaders. Or lack thereof.

Opium: Iraq's Newest Export. Oh boy, more drugs.

US congress approves war funding. Gutless.

Death by Multiculturalism.

BrightPathVideo.com

Hole

Fall down The Memory Hole.

Supply Lines Cut?

Juan Cole: The Beginning of the End of Anglo-American Iraq. Will the southern supply lines be cut?

Why America Lost the War in Iraq. Too many high tech fools and too much money.

Lebanon vows to crush militants. Will more internal fighting be seen?

How Long?

Afghan battle lines become blurred. How long before everbody turns on NATO?

Mubarak: Hamas will never sign a peace agreement with Israel.  Really?

Clinton Moved Wal-Mart Board, but Only So Far.  Stinking worthless whore.

Another Widening War

Pakistan clash 'kills US soldier.' Another widening war.

War-torn Iraq 'facing collapse.' You got paid?

Fabius Maximus: Follow-up note. It can be written.

I got nothing.

Too Late

Patrick Cockburn: State of Surge. Too late.

Al-Qaeda 'holding US soldiers'. Not a good spot to be in. See Also.

'A bullet at the heart of democracy.' No real democracy in Turkey.

Review of Brave New War

Following a useful and well-written introduction to Fourth Generation war, Brave New War offers four observations of strategic importance. The first is that the “global gorillas” of 4GW will use “systems disruption” to inflict massive damage on states at little cost to themselves. Modern states depend on the functioning of numerous overlaid networks – fuel pipelines, electric grids, etc. – which have critical linkages that are subject to attack. Robb writes:

To global guerillas, the point of greatest emphasis is the systempunkt. It is a point in the system … that will collapse the target system if it is destroyed. Within an infrastructure system, this collapse takes the form of disrupted flows that result in financial loss or supply shortages. Within a market, the result is a destabilization of the psychology of the marketplace that will introduce severe inefficiencies and chaos.

Our problem is that the global guerillas we see in the long tail of this global insurgency are quickly learning how to detect and attack systempunkts.

Here, I think John Robb’s Air Force background may mislead him to an extent. Air Forces have long believed that the bombing of critical nodes in an enemy’s military, communications or economic systems can win wars; American air raids on German ball-bearing plants in World War II are a famous example. In reality, it seldom works because the enemy’s re-routing, redundancy and repair capabilities enable him to work around the destruction. Robb is right that such destruction can increase costs, but wartime psychology can absorb higher costs. War trumps peacetime balance-sheets.

At least for the civilian sector, I would have to basically disagree with Lind and lean more towards Robb. Repeated systems disruptions in the civilian sector might at first stand firm. However, "How dare they shut down my power on a hot day..." becomes "Why can't the government stop this?" It erodes central authority. The central government reacts with the inevitable tightening of civil liberties.* Hence more small groups engage in the sabotage of infrastructure like power lines and gas lines (as witnessed in Iraq.) The attacked system fails in sections. Life in a technological system is vulnerable to power disruptions. Late last fall, in the Seattle Metropolitan Area, a wind storm shut down power to people in scattered pockets and outlying areas brought the entire city to a halt. Nothing worked consistently. There were fights over gasoline. Relatively speaking, the situation was an inconvenience for most residents, deprived of power (and maybe their paycheck) for a day or so. Now imagine if it happened all the time. People would carry cash again. There would be more robberies, etc. Eventually, the economy is battered and the government would cease to exist except in name only. Sound familiar?

Also, the modern west does not have the fortitude of past generations. Decadence is kind of like that.

* But generally with more finese than a genuine totalitarian state. It compensates by discharging all cultural morality for Maximum Advantage in All Things.

Here's the DNI Review by Chet Richards, Editor.

Greatest Flaw Of Fanatics

What if bin Laden were smart, like Dr. No or Ernest Blofeld? or 28 Articles: a guide to a successful insurgency against America. To do so, he would first need to understand America. The inability view the target objectively is probably the greatest flaw of fanatics. As a result, they cannot pry between the smallest cracks.

Summary

1. Al Qaeda has not yet defeated us, to some extent because they are dumb as rocks.

2. That is good, because so are we.

3. Unfortunately, #1 could change at any time.

A world of idiots might be the highest hope?  What a wonderful world.

Worth Reading

Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges (1 MB PDF), by Col. T. X. Hammes, USMC, Ret. Worth Reading.

The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century is also worth reading.

Another Brutal Day

Juan Cole: Al-Zawahiri attacks Democratic Plan in Iraq; 75 Killed in Civil War Violence; Police/Mahdi Army Truce in Najaf. Another brutal day.

Baghdad car bomb blast kills 33.

Trying to Catch Up with the Voters. Optimism?

Fire the Generals!

Fire the Generals! And the politicians who placed them.

Uniter

Israelis call on Olmert to resign.  He's a uniter, not a divider.

Western media fade, new media rise in Asia.  Sick of the happy horseshit.

US and Syria hold high-level talks.  They need each other.  Ha, Ha.

On War

Happy May Day.

On War and its evolution (and some other stuff): 

links:

Review of Brave New War by John Robb.

John Robb (Global Guerrillas): MEND'S OPEN SOURCE WAR.

Review of The Changing Face of War: Lessons of Combat, From the Marne to Iraq By Martin van Creveld.

Juan Cole: Mission Accomplished, 4 Years on: A Commentary in Links.

And of course: General Incompetence by William S. Lind:

Lt. Col. Paul Yingling's article in the latest Armed Forces Journal, "A failure in generalship," should therefore not surprise us. His argument that the failure in Iraq is due in part to bad generalship is valid. We have no reason to expect America's military to be an exception to history's rule that bad generals are more common than good generals. Especially in peacetime, few officers make general because of their military abilities. A comfortable pair of knee pads and an unlimited supply of lip balm are far more useful for attaining flag rank than an ability to defeat an enemy.

(Don't ask, don't tell?)

And while we're at it: Top Secret Tourism: Your Travel Guide to Germ Warfare Laboratories, Clandestine Aircraft Bases, and Other Places in the United States You’re Not Supposed to Know About.