Links 12/28/10

The Shortwave Report Is a 30 minute review of news stories recorded from a shortwave radio.

Andy Xie: Either America Or China Will Crash In 2011.  Which system is more dysfunctional?

Re: Wikileaks
Weakness has been exposed and now the messenger must pay.

Ron Paul’s Passionate Defense Of Julian Assange And WikiLeaks On House Floor. At least someone still has convictions.  (The real question regarding his son is how far will the apple fall from the tree?)

Twelve Theses on Wikileaks.   The soft target has been hit.

Links 12/27/10

The End of Men. It's obvious that young men are falling behind in college graduate rates because young women have gotten the message that they need to work to succeed (whatever that means). Young mean, on the other hand, have been indulged.  The result is women are getting ahead.

2011: A Brave New Dystopia. This column seems to be too fixated on the state. It might want to be totalitarian, but is too dysfunctional to be so (just annoying enough to destroy its legitimacy).

The Bottom

$2 trillion municipal bond debt crisis could bring down 100 US cities, analyst warns.

State Budgets: The Day of Reckoning.

The bottom always suffers worst.

The Circle of Life

From For the holiday season, here are some comforting thoughts about America:

Blaming our leaders is a cop-out.  In fact that’s a key aspect of our problem — a failure to assume responsibility for our nation.  We, America, get the leaders we want. Fearful weak people elect leaders who skillfully exploit their fears and weaknesses.  That’s the Circle of Life, if not the way Disney tells it.

You asked for it, and you got it!

Child Labor

13 Products Most Likely To Made By Child Or Forced Labor. Interesting to note that toys were not on this list.

No

The Autumn Of The Hegemon:

Can a ruling elite remain hegemonic when it shows so little capacity for acting in its own long-term interests?

No.

Taking Down America

Read Tomgram: Alfred McCoy, Taking Down America.  Interesting, but too fixated on the State.

Terrible?

A Terrible Way To Fix The Economy: Households Deleveraging Through Defaulting on Debt. Since it's obvious that economics in the US means everyone for themselves, then defaulting is a great idea.  Morality means nothing in economic decisions.  Credit cars are a good start to default.  The only thing Bill Collectors can do about unsecured loans is to be annoying.

(Sadly, I am one of those suckers who is currently paying these bills down, but I'll kick them to the curb at the drop of a hat if I deem it necessary.)

Getting it Wrong

In 2007 Ben Bernanke said the following:

The rise in subprime mortgage lending likely boosted home sales somewhat, and curbs on this lending are expected to be a source of some restraint on home purchases and residential investment in coming quarters. Moreover, we are likely to see further increases in delinquencies and foreclosures this year and next as many adjustable-rate loans face interest-rate resets. All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system. The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well. Past gains in house prices have left most homeowners with significant amounts of home equity, and growth in jobs and incomes should help keep the financial obligations of most households manageable.

And this guy still has his job?!?

Link.

Showing His Age

What Progressives Don’t Understand About Obama By ISHMAEL REED. (Besides the fact that he isn't a liberal?) This is one of those pieces where the author (B. 1938) shows is age. Although older white people may be threatened by the angry, younger white people wonder why he doesn't get angry.

Low Orbit Ion Cannon

See Anonymous and the Low Orbit Ion Cannon for link to the cannon.

Ad Nauseam

This week’s news: many stories showing that the Constitution is dead.  This can be documented Ad nauseam.  Anyone who believe voting means anything is deluded or smoking crack.  Regarding the death warrant for Anwar al-Awlaki:

For a summary of this amazing case see this article by the ACLU. Please read the opinion here, especially note this (p.78):

“To be sure, this Court recognizes the somewhat unsettling nature of its conclusion — that there are circumstances in which the Executive’s unilateral decision to kill a U.S. citizen overseas is “constitutionally committed to the political branches” and judicially unreviewable.”

When our children build a tomb to hold the Constitution, this can be its epitaph.

Well said.

Operation Payback - Anonymous Message About ACTA Laws, Internet Censorship and Copyright

Link.

Re: Wikileaks

The US Government's Frontal Assault on Freedom. The MSM shows its true stripes.

The Shameful Attacks on Julian Assange. A new celebrity?  I find it amusing that they are shocked, shocked that Democrats could be fascists too.

Is Wikileaks an Open Source Insurgency?

Also, how can a non-US citizen be a traitor to America?

Wikileaks Mirror Sites

http://wikileaks.ch/mirrors.html

The amusing thing is that if the USG simply stopped making a big stink about  the whole thing, it wouldn't be receiving nearly this much attention.  For instance, I have never even had the urge to read the Iraq/Afghan leaks (although I might now out of shear spite).  What a bunch of Chumps...

New Wikileaks Links

http://wikileaks.ch/
http://wikileaks.de/
http://wikileaks.fi/
http://wikileaks.nl/

Open Secrets

It's kind of funny that the press is reportedly censoring the Wikileaks cable releases when all one has to do is go look.  The MSM is not needed as an intermediary.
Of course, it's also kind of amusing to see what is termed "Secret":

Tuesday, 20 November 2007, 16:17 

S E C R E T RIYADH 002320

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP, SCA, AND P STAFF

EO 12958 DECL: 11/18/2017

TAGS PGOV, PHUM, PK, PREL, PTER, SA

SUBJECT: SAUDI ARABIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE US ON PAKISTANI

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF’S VISIT TO SAUDI ARABIA

Classified By: CHARGE D’AFFAIRES MICHAEL GFOELLER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) A ND (D)

¶1. (S) On November 20, Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the US Adel al-Jubeir invited the Charge d’Affaires and Executive Office Staff Assistant (note taker) to his residence for lunch. During the meal, Ambassador al-Jubeir said that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf arrived in Saudi Arabia, today, November 20, and will meet with King Abdullah, Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, and head of the General Intelligence Presidency Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz after he completes Umra in Mecca. He noted that Musharraf will meet with the Foreign Minister and Prince Muqrin first and thereafter see King Abdullah sometime in the evening. “The purpose of these meetings,” said al-Jubeir, “is to get a readout of the situation and present our point of view to him.”

¶2. (S) Al-Jubeir denied that Musharraf had come to the Kingdom to meet with exiled former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, although he carefully avoided ruling out such a meeting. Instead, he boldly asserted that, “We in Saudi Arabia are not observers in Pakistan, we are participants.” He asserted that the Saudi government (SAG) had offered Sharif a pledge of protection and asylum in the Kingdom after his ouster by Musharraf in return for a promise that he would refrain from political activity for ten years. He added that Sharif had begun to attempt to test the limits of this promise five or six years in his exile. “Sharif broke his promise by conducting political activity while in the Kingdom,” al-Jubeir charged. He added that when the SAG had permitted Sharif to travel to London, he first promised the Saudis not to engage in political activity or return to Pakistan, but he then flew to Pakistan from London in a direct violation of his commitment.

¶3. (S) Al-Jubeir expressed considerable “disappointment” in Sharif’s broken pledges to the SAG. He stated very clearly that the SAG has worked directly with Musharraf to have Sharif arrested on his return to Pakistan and immediately deported to the Kingdom. “We told Musharraf that we would receive him back and then keep him here as an ‘honored guest’,” al-Jubeir said. He added that Prince Muqrin had been the SAG’s point man in restraining Sharif. Prince Muqrin was allowed to reveal the terms of Sharif’s asylum agreement, he noted. Al-Jubeir made it very clear that the SAG would seek to control Sharif’s movements in he future, even suggesting that he would be kept in a state only a little less severe than house arrest.

¶4. (S) Al-Jubeir added that he sees neither Sharif nor former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto as a viable replacement for Musharraf. “With all his flaws,” he said of Musharraf, “he is the only person that you or we have to work with now.” He claimed that Sharif would be unable to control the Pushtun-dominated Islamic insurgency in the tribal region near Afghanistan, while Bhutto would prove to be too divisive a figure to rule the country, which he characterized as “very tribal, much like our own country.”

¶5. (S) Al-Jubeir added that for the SAG, stability in Pakistan is an essential strategic matter. Since Pakistan possesses both nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles, from the Saudi point of view, the policy choice to be made there boils down to a drastic choice: “We can either support Musharraf and stability, or we can allow bin Laden to get the bomb, “he told the Charge’.

¶6. (S) Comment: As a senior royal advisor who has worked for King Abdullah for eight years now, al-Jubeir’s views generally track very closely with those of the King. It seems likely that King Abdullah, Prince Muqrin, and Prince Saud al-Faisal will offer Musharraf pledges of strong support in their meetings today. We note that the Saudis have an economic hold on Nawaz Sharif, sine he was reportedly the first non-Saudi to receive a special economic development loan from the SAG, with which to develop a business while here in exile. We will report further information on these meetings as it develops. End Comment. GFOELLER

So the Saudis are players in Pakistan?  Wow.  That sure needs to be kept secret.  It sounds like some of these things are made secret just so the author can feel important (or maybe get someone to actually read the dispatch).

The highest level of secrecy in the cables is the classification of "Secret//noforn" meaning it should not be shared with non-US citizens. These tend to be a bit more interesting. Here's a sample:

06CARACAS958

VZCZCXRO6675
PP RUEHAG
DE RUEHCV #0958/01 0972019
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 072019Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4003
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6275
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 5360
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ PRIORITY 1877
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0083
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 1952
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO PRIORITY 3674
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 0655
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 1129
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 3426
RUEHMU/AMEMBASSY MANAGUA PRIORITY 1124
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO PRIORITY 0110
RUEHAO/AMCONSUL CURACAO PRIORITY 0723
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0090
RUEHMI/USOFFICE FRC FT LAUDERDALE PRIORITY 2980
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA PRIORITY 0622
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 CARACAS 000958

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
FOR FRC LAMBERT

E.O. 12958: DNG: CO 04/08/2026
TAGS: PGOV MASS PARM VE
SUBJECT: EXPLAINING VENEZUELA'S COZINESS WITH IRAN,
C-NE6-00140

REF: A. CARACAS 00661
¶B. 05 CARACAS 01822
¶C. CARACAS 00330
¶D. TD-314/18176-06
¶E. TD-314/18093-06
¶F. HAVANA 04139
¶G. IIR 6 902 9642 06

CARACAS 00000958 001.2 OF 005


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4
(D)

-------
Summary
-------

¶1. (S//NF) Manifest in the public rhetoric of both
countries, a shared hatred for the USG is the driving factor
in the budding relationship between Iran and Venezuela. The
BRV is favoring Iran with petroleum deals and other contracts
that appear to make little commercial sense. Although rumors
of Venezuela's cooperation with an Iranian nuclear weapons
program appear baseless, Iran and Venezuelan spokesmen have
announced their intention to develop Venezuela's civilian
nuclear capabilities. Press reports and Embassy contacts
suggest Venezuela is preparing to try to exploit its own
uranium deposits with Iran's assistance. Sensitive reporting
indicates Venezuela may also be seeking armaments,
cooperation on maintaining aircraft purchased from the United
States, and help in training its military reserves. Post
will continue to monitor the relationship while seeking to
exploit Venezuela's missteps as it isolates itself from
countries alarmed about Iran's nuclear ambitions. End
summary.

¶2. (SBU) Iran and Venezuela have been signing bilateral
agreements galore. Iranian parliamentary speaker Gholam-Ali
Haddad Adel told the press during his visit to Caracas in
mid-February that the two countries had signed 100 accords.
Iranian President Mohammad Khatami and Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez inked twenty of these together in March 2005,
including plans to cooperate in petrochemical, agricultural,
and housing projects. Venezuela often signs agreements to
show off its importance on the world stage without following
through. Yet, in the case of Iran, there appears to be more
to the budding relationship than show. Below we examine
several possible explanations for the bilateral coziness, in
rough order of importance.

--------
Ideology
--------

¶3. (SBU) Iran shares a disdain for the U.S. Government that
the BRV seeks in its foreign allies. Chavez' ill-defined,
left-wing, anti-American ideology often drives his foreign
policy decisions, even when his foreign counterparts only
appear to be seeking commercial benefits. With Iran,
however, he has found a partner that shares his desire to try
to face down the United States. Evident in his daily
rhetoric, Chavez' ideology--and his accompanying attempts to
use it to stir up his political base--best explain his
decision to isolate himself from much of the world by
supporting Iran. (Venezuela joined only Syria and Cuba in
voting February 4 to oppose Iran's referral to the U.N.
Security Council for its involvement in uranium enrichment.)
Chavez, who regularly alleges the U.S. military has stolen
Iraq's oil, has accused Washington of having designs on
Iran's supply. Other BRV officials have taken Chavez'
ideological cue to the point of making Venezuela appear

CARACAS 00000958 002.2 OF 005


fanatical. General Alberto Muller, a key proponent and
planner of Venezuela's new military doctrine, announced
February 14 that Iran would be acting "in legitimate defense"
if it were to use nuclear arms, although he cautioned that
Venezuela did not support the production of such weapons.
According to Argentine newspaper La Nacion, Venezuelan
Ambassador to Argentina Roger Capella Mateo stormed out of a
Mercosur meeting with Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel
Moratinos when Moratinos said his country opposed Iran's
refusal to submit to nuclear controls.

---------
Petroleum
---------

¶4. (C) Ideology may be the only explanation for bilateral
cooperation in the petroleum sector. Iran and Venezuela
appear to enjoy each other's company as fellow radical
oil-producing countries. Both Iran and Venezuela are OPEC
price hawks, but their solidarity on the supply issue does
not appear to have translated into many mutual benefits.
Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez told reporters March 11 that
Iran and Venezuela were signing agreements because their oil
policies coincided, but mentioned nothing tangible,
digressing into how Venezuela could benefit from Iranian
experience in the cooperative movement and in developing
small agricultural machines. Venezuela has granted the
Iranian company Petropars the rights to certify a block in
the Faja region. The Iranians, however, have no experience
exploiting the extra heavy crude found in the area. (The
industry perception is that if a company is granted rights to
study a block in the Faja, it will eventually be given a
block in the area to exploit.) Chevron representatives told
us that the Iranians approached them seeking assistance on
carrying out the certification studies.

--------------------------------------
Commercial Agreements: Who's to Gain?
--------------------------------------

¶5. (C) A USD 200 million binational fund to finance
investment in both countries could ensure that commercial
ties continue to grow. Nonetheless, the unprofitability of
many of the deals inked with Iran again raises the question
of whether ideological factors are driving the relationship.
For example, in January Venezuela offered Iran contracts to
build low-income housing even though Iran's bid was twice as
expensive as the Venezuelan private sector's. (Note:
corruption could explain the overpricing, as well.)
Venezuela also plans to build a USD 220 million cement plant
to supply the local market with Iran's help. Such a plant
would appear to be a poor investment. Despite the enormous
transportation costs for cement, multinational CEMEX
currently exports cement from Venezuela for a price lower
than the going Venezuela rate because its local buyers delay
payments, according to a prominent economic contact. Chavez
announced in February he would import 10 Iranian plants to
process corn flour, a Venezuelan staple. The BRV likely sees
the state takeover of this industry as a solution to recent
shortages caused by its price controls. In another example
of state economic planning and ideological ties trumping
sound investment planning, Iran will establish an ethanol
plant in Lara State, according to press reports. The BRV may
view the production of ethanol--a by-product of sugar
refinery--as a fringe benefit to its project to resurrect
failed Cuban sugar mills in Venezuela.

----------------------------------------
Going Nuclear?: Uranium Rumors and More

CARACAS 00000958 003.2 OF 005


----------------------------------------

¶6. (C) As reported REF A, recent rumors that Venezuela is
trafficking in nuclear weapons and mining uranium for Iran
appear to be little more than the conspiracy-mongering by
Chavez adversaries. More disconcerting, however, are BRV and
GOI statements that suggest a long-term plan to develop
Venezuela's nuclear potential. Chavez mentioned on his
weekly "Alo Presidente" program in May 2005 the possibility
of asking help from "countries like Iran" in developing a
nuclear energy program. In February 2006, Iran publicly
affirmed its willingness to help Venezuela develop nuclear
energy, according to press reports. (See REF B for a
description of Venezuela's need for foreign expertise to
restart the fledgling nuclear program it shut down in the
1980s.) In March 2005, a memorandum of understanding signed
by the Iranian and Venezuelan Presidents established that
Iran would help Venezuela create a "National Geoscience
Database" that would contain a survey of the mineral deposits
throughout Venezuelan territory. Tomasso Tosini, geologist
and director of the Earth Sciences Institute of the Central
University of Venezuela, told us in June 2005 that creating
such a "basic geological map" of Venezuela would be the
logical first step to restarting a uranium program in
Venezuela.

¶5. (C) During a February 2006 meeting with poloff, UCV
professor and senior Accion Democratica party official Nelson
Lara claimed to have information substantiating Iran's
involvement in Venezuela's mineral sector. Lara said active
duty military officers in his classes told him that 20
Iranian officials were working in the Ministry of Basic
Industry and Mines. He said the Iranians did not answer to
any Venezuelan management. Lara speculated about their
involvement in uranium mining but said he did not know the
Iranians' role in the ministry. He added that 37 Iranians
were active in the Venezuelan Institute of Geology and Mines,
which Chavez launched in mid-2004.

¶6. (C) Venezuelan threats to take over property in areas
believed to have significant radioactive deposits are fueling
additional rumors that Venezuela is planning to mine
uranium. (Embassy note: Rumors that the BRV is planning to
mine these areas appear overblown. Factors besides uranium
are driving the government's targeting of land, although the
delays in expropriations reported in REF C could also reflect BRV attempts to drag out negotiations for land until it can gauge the true value of properties' mineral wealth.) In the mid-1980s, the Ministry of Energy and Mines conducted
preliminary geochemical samplings that indicated the possible presence of uranium deposits in at least two locations urrently eyed by the government:

-- The study revealed "anomalous areas to be assessed in
more detail" along the Caroni River in Bolivar State, where
the National Guard has begun evicting individual gold and
diamond prospectors reportedly to prevent them from damaging
the environment. In mid-March, National Guard attempts to
dislodge people from the Caroni basin ended in the deaths of
two miners. Demanding the withdrawal of soldiers stationed
in the Venezuelan military's fifth theater of operations
(TO5), miners responded by blocking roads and burning TO5
facilities.

-- The ministry report cited a section of Cojedes State as a
source of concentrated uranium. The area contains ranch and
nature preserve Hato Pinero, which the government has
targeted for possible expropriation. Concerned that the
ranch's alleged mineral wealth might attract BRV interest,

CARACAS 00000958 004.2 OF 005

ranch owner Jaime Perez Branger gave us a copy of an earlier
(1959) Ministry of Mines report calling Pinero's granite "the
most radioactive in the region." A footnote in the document,
however, noted that the counters used in the 1959 study would
not have detected uranium ore, one of many possible sources
of radioactivity.

-------
Defense
-------

¶7. (S//NF) Defense cooperation may also help explain the
expansion of the bilateral relationship (REFS D and E).
Indeed, an army official is scheduled to replace the current
Iranian Ambassador to Venezuela. According to sensitive
reporting, the Venezuelan Government is seeking lethal
armament from Iran such as rockets and other explosive
materiel. Venezuela has also sought from Iran parts for the
U.S. aircraft in its fleet that have been denied under the
Department's policy prohibiting the sale of components for
lethal munitions. Finally, sensitive reporting suggests that
Venezuela has sought help from Iran in establishing its
military reserve force. The Iranian popular mobilization
army (Basij) and the revolutionary guard corps (IRGC) invite
comparison with Venezuela's still evolving parallel military
structures: the reserves and the territorial guard.
Commander of the Basij Gen. Mohammed Hejazi visited Venezuela
in 2005, and an IRGC colonel has arrived here probably on
permanent assignment. A retired military officer citing
Venezuelan reservists told us March 24 that Iran had a small
number of soldiers in Venezuela training the reserves.

---------------
Shared Culture?
---------------

¶8. (S//NF) Venezuela has a Muslim population of about
250,000 including some tens of thousands of Shia'. In
addition to its political activities, the nine
Iranians--including four career diplomats--posted to the
Iranian Embassy in Venezuela represent a small but growing
number of their citizens working in Venezuela in both the
formal and informal sectors. Cultural ties between the two
countries, however, do little to help explain the expanding
relationship. Most Venezuelans are unfamiliar with Muslims
and are unable to distinguish Iranians from Arabs or from
other Muslims. Indeed, as REF F states about Iran and Cuba,
Venezuelan and Iranian societies have little more in common
than their despotic leaders' antipathy toward the United
States.

-------
Comment
-------

¶9. (C) Venezuela's support for a country that has nuclear
ambitions, supports terrorism, and talks about wiping Israel
off the map is of grave concern. It also alarms
nations--such as France (REF G)--that have tended to make
light of our concerns about Venezuela's antidemocratic
tendencies and militarization. We can exploit this alarm.
Just as the shared animosity toward Washington driving the
Iran-Venezuela relationship leads to irrational commercial
endeavors, it is also likely to lead to additional diplomatic
gaffes and other missteps that reflect poorly on the BRV
among wary international observers.

¶10. (C) We should not dismiss the uranium rumors. At the
very least, it appears clear Venezuela plans to prospect for

CARACAS 00000958 005.2 OF 005

uranium with the intention of starting a nuclear program.
Like many BRV schemes, the plan may remain in bureaucratic
and financial limbo for years, and it may never be
fulfilled. Yet, in the event that its ends are not peaceful,
it warrants careful monitoring. All source information
indicates Iran needs foreign sources of uranium to maintain
its nuclear program. How Iran would benefit from any
Venezuelan plan to extract uranium will be an open question
as long as Venezuela's uranium deposits remain unverified.

BROWNFIELD

It's even more shocking to hear that Iran and Venezuela like each other because they don't like the US.  I could never have guessed.  At least, this cable at least tell us something about US Diplomatic strategy, but the rest could probably be found in the press.  It's interesting to note that, although the author believes Venezuelan nuclear ambitions are "overblown," it's something that can be used against the Chavez government (to Maximum Advantage, I might add).

So in closing, some are interesting but the rest are pretty banal or just opinions.  It's hardly the "911 of world diplomacy."